Amiram Hayardeny’s BigMouth

Two and a half years, thirty months, nine hundred and twelve days.  Tons of “Gong Bao Ji Ding” (chicken with peanuts) and even more “ji dan chao fan” (fried rice and eggs).  One Olympic event, two if you count the Paralympic Games separately.  Countless beautiful tourist attractions, temples, palaces, monuments, markets, and one really Great Wall.  One huge allowed city with a small but spectacular Forbidden part.  Millions of people, thousands of acquaintances, hundreds of peers and co-workers, and a handful of really special friends.

Trade shows, technical fairs, speeches, conferences and conventions, and one canceled Celine Dion concert.  Two Chinese speaking children, one able-to-get-by-in-Chinese wife and a mute - that would be me.

Hundreds of Terracotta Warriors, drums, bells, towers, bell towers, cellular phone rings, fireworks, car horns, cars, trains, buses, people and more people.  Lots of people.

One large natural disaster.  The Sichuan earthquake will always be burnt into my long term memory.  Not only the quake itself and the few horrifying minutes on the tenth floor of the Chuangxin Plaza, but the unity, the charity, the memorials.

Beijing, Shanghai, Dalian, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tianjin, Datong, Changchun, Wuhan, but also Thailand, Japan, Korea, India and Russia.  Exploding economy, strong currency, dynamic stock market, and one big real estate bubble ready to burst.

Smoke, smog, air pollution, water pollution and one big milk scandal.

Dozens of device drivers, certification programs, software engineering, software engineers, quality processes, staff meetings, visitors, and one excellent operating system.  Undoubtedly, the Beijing site contribution to the Solaris OS is significant and will continue to be.

Rich in adventures, filled with interesting people and intriguing relationships.  A culture, thousands of years old, yet completely new to me.  Unfamiliar customs, yet a constant feeling of being at home.  This was My China Experience.  And a lot more.

Being the wanderer that I am, I get attached to people, not to places.  I will miss China.  Not the geography, but the people.

Spending two and a half years in China was an exotic experience, one that’s not shared by many.  Obviously, almost everything I saw here was new to me, the sites, the smells, the flavors.  But what made it really special are the people I met.  People from all walks of life.  From highly educated professionals, through blue collar workers, taxi drivers, waiters, shopkeepers, all the way to really poor people.  My experience with almost everyone was that they were kind, willing to help, and warmhearted.  Of course, there were exceptions, but the exceptions were the absolute the minority.

I have left places before in my life.  I left schools, military units, workplaces.  I left countries, towns and homes.  Indeed, every departure was followed by a new beginning, a new place, a change of career, a change of scenery.  I can clearly say without doubt, nobody ever said goodbye to me in a more graceful way than my Beijing team.  And there were some parties before.  Big ones.  But the goodbye party given to me in Beijing was absolutely outstanding.  Not the venue (it was our large conference room, quite adequate if I may say so myself), not the food (although pizza, wings and soda are a great combination).  There was something about the people, the words said, the pictures taken, the video playing in the background.  I felt appreciated, I felt that I was surrounded with love and affection.  I felt that I touched peoples’ lives.  I knew that when someone writes the history of Sun Microsystems, Beijing Engineering and Research Institute, I will have had a part in it.  My spirit will remain long after I depart.

We’re leaving parts of ourselves behind, and taking some of China home with us.  Our China experience will remain in our collective memories foras long as we live.

So to whoever made my stay here joyful, successful, adventurous, educational, exploratory, I offer my thanks.  To those who cared about us, helped in whatever way, made sure that we were happy and content, and to those who want it, I offer my friendship.  To a handful of people, I offer a lifelong commitment that I will be there for them whenever they need me.  Anything I can ever do for you, absolutely anything, just let me know.

This concludes my china experience.  It also concludes My China Experience.  It also concludes my Sun Microsystems experience.  I promise you though: my Big Mouth is here to stay.

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I have learned quite a few lessons in the last few months following the interesting developments in the global economy.  For one, the analysts’ guesses about the future are as good as mine, as yours and as fortune tellers, witch doctors and Nostradamus followers.  That does not prevent them from showing up on TV newscasts and business magazines’ front pages, and with straight faces declare the “oil prices are expected to reach $150.00 a barrel by year end” and with the same straight faces state that “oil prices will drop to $40.00 a barrel by Christmas”.  No responsibility, no consequence.

Nobody predicted this global crisis, nobody knows when it will end, nobody knows how deep it will go and what the long term consequences will be.  Nobody knows the effect on global economy, on the industrialized countries, the post-industrialized countries, the emerging markets.  It’s all guesses.  And since it is, I can throw in a couple of my own guesses.  I’m positive that if you look around, you would find a few “economists” or “analysts” or “financial advisers” who think along similar lines.  But I promise you, the reality will be different, and if turns out that I nailed it, do me a favor, do not credit it to my brilliance, my deep financial understanding, or to my Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton (I have no such thing).  Credit it to pure coincidence.

• America will re-industrialize.  Over the years the US gave up most of its manufacturing power to developing countries around the world.  The reason was obvious and simple - price.  The results are felt in a devastating way now.  Low price occasionally means less control, low quality, and worse, no means of manufacturing at times of need.
• Economies cannot be based solely on consumption.
• Booming economies, particularly in the emerging markets are going to experience a slow growth if not a downturn.  I believe it needs a little elaboration.  Countries based on manufacturing need consumers to buy their products.  When the consumers are tightening up, the effect is felt in the manufacturing countries.  These countries MUST use internal consumption to stay afloat.  Countries not ready for this massive change will undoubtedly experience a massive slowdown or a recession.
• Booming economies, by the way, buy (or used to buy) outstanding amounts of raw materials.  It’s evident already that less aluminum, iron and cement is being purchased.  For the countries producing these raw materials this will deal a devastating blow.  The possible good outcome - the demise of fossil fuels.  About time!
• Stock prices must reconnect with what the companies do, with the products they make, with the value they provide the world.
• The way people invest their money may have to be revised.  Buying a stock at 9:00 in the morning, and selling it at 9:15 for a few pennies profit may be
• Instruments of investment such as derivatives, CDOs, CMOs and a multitude of others may either become a thing of the past or much more regulated.
• Double digit growth on a quarterly basis is nice, and may occasionally happen.  Expecting it to happen every single quarter may cause some companies to cut corners, to practice business in a less than ethical way.
• People, should consume what they can afford.  Consuming today based on money that may or may not come tomorrow is an irresponsible activity.
• My grandmother used to say “save money on sunny days, for the rainy days that may be coming”.  Save some money, it’s not shameful.  Plus you or your family may need it one day.
• Don’t forget that risk exists.  It’s real.  Real estate actually can go down, so do incomes, stock markets, even currency.

My own predictions are simple.  Consolidation in the financial institutions around the world.  Stock markets down globally.  Developing countries (but not exclusively) defaulting on their external loans for two main reasons: less export for whatever they are exporting, and devaluation of local currencies which will eventually lead to the inability to pay external debt.  Unemployment will go record high globally.  Real estate will adjust down globally.  Some very familiar names in the consumer goods will simply disappear or consolidate with others.  The automobile, pharmaceutical, computing, and consumer goods manufacturing ecosystem will undoubtedly look different a year from today.

Bottom line, the way I see it, the world is about to change.  Significantly.  When and where the change will conclude?  Nobody knows.  Certainly not me.

Do I have an advice?  Very simple.  Try to keep your job.  Try to limit your consumption and don’t let anyone convince you that consumption drives the economy.  It may be true statistically, but individually, we all know, if you can’t afford what you consume, it will catch up with you.  Be conservative in your investments, don’t fall into the double digit quarterly profit scheme.  Some people actually made a lot of money from those creative investment instruments, but many lost fortunes.  Lastly, don’t get too impressed with people who live in big homes, drive expensive cars, go to fancy restaurants and expensive vacations - they may be mortgaging their future for the present.  It’s never a good idea.

And finally - brace yourself.  We live at a globally defining moment.  Like the Dow Jones Industrial Index, or the NASDAQ, it is about statistics.  But we, the people, have a much more individual experience than the stock markets.  The Dow and the NASDAQ don’t have families to feed…

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How does one know that it’s time to go home?

The mind is a wonderful yet mysterious element.  It observes, collects data and impressions, analyzes, concludes and takes action.  Constructs behaviors.  Forms relationships.  But it also uses some forms of deception, and it finds alternatives and replacements.  It learns to live with missing things, missing people.  It  learns to cope with difficult situations.  It helps one live in harmony with one’s environment.  It’s a master of cognitive dissonance.  The ability to form the bridges between ones desired environment and the unavoidable and undeniable reality.  Cognitive Dissonance is a powerful element of our ability to live in any environment outside of the mythical paradise.  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance).

Rationalizing ones environment is a necessity.  Without this skill, it would be extremely difficult for anyone to live away from home, from close family and friends, from familiar foods and customs, from anything outside the realm of the paradise.  Paradise, in my opinion can be defined as childhood.  The home where one grew up, the faces of loved ones, the smells of a favorite food.  For me, the smell of my grandmother’s linen, her smiling face, her chicken soup are building blocks of paradise.  My mother’s hug, my father’s smile, my sister’s commanding voice, and my brother trying to explain some complex theory in laymen terms…  Heaven.

I could probably make a list of people, places, foods which construct my own personal paradise.  But that would probably be too long and too boring.  Plus, it would be too personal.  I’m sure everyone reading this can relate to it.  Can you construct your own list?

And there, two and a half years ago, my family and I left our little paradise behind and came here, to Beijing, to take part in something big.

Last Friday we were invited to dear friends at the Israeli embassy.  A Friday evening, Festival of Sukkot meal.  And there I was, standing there, with a few other Israelis, a few other Jews, some I’ve never met before, many I consider my good friends.  I stood there, looking at the set dinner table, with the candlesticks, with the large braided Challah (the special and delicious bread Jews bake for the Sabbath and the Holidays), the wine bottles, the colorful salads and appetizers.  And guess what: in an instant, I was in paradise, my well constructed cognitive dissonance disappeared, I was stripped of my protecting walls and defenses, and the feeling of yearning overtook me by surprise.  I wanted to go home.

I would never know which came first - the cause or the effect.  Did it hit me because we are going home?  The answer is inconsequential and unimportant.  Even irrelevant.  But something was resolved something in my mind.  I was ready to go.  When one leaves a place, he or she always leave something behind.  A part of their personality, a part of their heart.  Friends, places, tastes and smells.  In answer to your question - no, they can’t be reproduced reliably.  Only a cheap imitation would create for me the environment I’m leaving here.  I’m leaving behind many friends, Israeli and Chinese.  My children are leaving behind teachers, close friends, customs.  We are also taking it with us.  China will become part of us for as long as we live.

Ricky and Yossi, you have provided me with a taste of paradise, that I have so cleverly buried for so long.  Thank you.  I hope we’ll be friends for life.  Same for Vered and Michael, Einav and Yaniv, Yaniv’s parents, David and Darren, and of course his excellency Israeli Ambassador to China Mr. Amos Nadai,  thank you.

I crave my own little paradise now, I yearn for it.  I am ready to go home.

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My wife, the curator, bought a leather bag.  In the bag I found a fancy ticket, stating the following: “The materials used have been selected from the best existing ones.  Care and quality of the highest level are guaranteed im enery details of workmaship iln case of wordemanship defects please sirectly contact the boutique wher the item was purchased”.

The bag is indeed a good one.  I can tell.  And it has a story.  From its appearance, ticketing and ticketing, you would think that the item was actually manufactured for the US or European markets.  Incidentally, surplus in manufacturing left a few items to be sold in the local market.  But that’s only the cover story, what they would like you to believe.  The poor language on the ticket gives it away.  The bag was manufactured in China, for the Chinese market, pretending to be export surplus, and thus justifying the significant overpricing.

This isn’t an isolated incidence.  It’s actually very common.  My only question is, a few bucks could pay for b basic proofreading, providing a much more credible cover story.  Go figure.  By the way, the bag is good, the poor language provides good grounds for fierce bargaining.  And no, it’s not even a fake, it’s not a recognizable brand, at least not to me.  In short: a good deal.

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For almost two years I have been writing the My China Experience weblog.   wrote steadily, continuously, about current affairs, about China, about family and philosophy.  I tried to express my viewpoints and ideas.  As it turns out, quite a few people tuned in.  I’ve been asked lately, by many, what happened.  How come I write less frequently.  The answer is that I’m not sure.

Did I run out of ideas?  Is the world peaceful now?  Shortage of current affairs?  Have I stopped being the opinionated person that I am?  Again, no, no , no and absolutely no way.

In the process of reflecting on not writing, I did have one resolution.  I will not write anything for the sake of writing.  If I don’t have anything worth writing, I won’t write at all.

But before I end this one up, I wanted to make a comment on a new TV show - Moment of Truth.  I find it distasteful, disgusting and revolting to watch a bunch of bottom feeders, in an orchestrated competition of who can deliver a more devastating blow to their loved ones, friends and family.  But the flip side of it, of course, is that just as everything is - the secrets have been out in the open for years, and sharing them for a few thousand bucks is not such a big deal.  The flip-flip side of it is that still, watching low lives admit to cheating on their spouses, stealing from their parents and employers, lying through their teeth, is, well, nauseating.

And here’s another thought.  Barack Obama.  After a long time of watching, reading, trying to understand who is less deceiving, who will do less damage to America, who has a better chance to survive, to unite America.  After trying to figure to whom do I connect better.  After months of listening to the mud slinging, the allegations, the half truths and half lies, I have made up my mind.  I will vote for Barack Obama.  The reason is that I cannot connect with his opponent, and much less with his opponent’s vice presidential candidate.  I pray that it will prove as a good choice.  But quite frankly, can we do much worse than the present?

And of course, the stock markets and world economy…  I wrote about it many times, and I think about it often.  Is there a conclusion?  I can’t possibly write anything that’s not already written.  But I have an observation.  I believe that the financial markets, the investment bank, the investors, had successfully completed the process of disconnecting the “real” economy from the stock market.  The real economy is manufacturing, consuming, producing, saving, spending responsibly.  The financial markets are about speculation, manipulation, gambling.  Where do you belong?  Are you part of the “real” economy?  Are you part of the other economy, the one that manufactures, produces, consumes and ultimately bursts bubbles?

Lastly.  Indeed the slowdown is going to be global.  Advanced countries will be hit hard with zero or negative growth.  Emerging markets will suffer from low growth.  Are there bubbles to burst?  Absolutely.  I’ve been watching the Beijing real estate market for quite some time, waiting for a downturn.  From what I’m reading lately, it has arrived.  One paragraph I read in Business Week (October 13, 2008) sums it up pretty well: “Think the U.S. real estate slump is bad?  Get ready for China’s.  PICC Asset Management, an affiliate of AIG, figures prices for residential housing could fall by as much as 50% over the next decade.  One sign that China’s real estate bubble may be set to burst: In Beijing the ratio of home prices to household income, a traditional gauge of affordability has hit an all-time high of 28.8.  The World Bank considers a ratio of 5 to be a healthy norm”.

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