Observations

The United Nations (UN) organization is facing a very unique problem today, the application of Mahmud Abbas, the assumed representative of the Palestinian people, for independence, with full membership rights at the UN General Assembly.

As an Israeli American who lives in China, I thought about it a lot in the past week (not to mention the preceding forty odd years…) and came to one sad conclusion.  No matter what the outcome from the UN is, no winning party can be identified.  Only several losers, with different level of loss.

The assumption from the outset is that Mr. Abbas, Abu-Mazen, will go through with the application and will submit it to Ban Ki Moon, the UN Secretary General.  If that’s not the case, some losers can already be identified.  First and foremost, Mr. Abbas himself, for not carrying out his grand plan, for disappointing his people, for bending in front of the US.  The second is the US, for twisting the hand of a people aspiring freedom and liberty, on which the US is based, to forsake their dream, at least for now.  By the same token, France, and other European countries are losing credibility as future peace brokers between Israel and the Palestinians.  The third is Israel, for succeeding in stalling any progress at all in resolving the issues in the Middle East albeit all interesting developments in the region (see Libya, Tunisia, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and the list is growing).  In addition, Israel will have succeeded in isolating itself completely and thoroughly, more so than ever before.  No winners here.

Moving forward.  The application is put in front of the Security Council and gets vetoed.  Here I see a slight change in the order of losers.  Here, Obama and the US win the title of number one losers.  In this scenario, Obama basically isolates the United States of America from the rest of the entire world, siding with Israel completely, totally, unequivocally.  And while some Israelis, as well as some Christians who see Israel as the Land of the Second Coming may see it as a victory, there will be billions, literally, of people who will absolutely not see it this way at all.  Israel will lose again, naturally, as the pressure to continue the negotiations with the Palestinians will become a lot more significant, from ALL directions, the US included.  Only now, neither the US nor the Europeans will be credible as peace brokers.  The Palestinians may actually gain something in this scenario – recognition as underdog, and less denouncements for terrorist activities.

Next.  The application is put in front of the Security Council and goes through.  Obama and the US lose as once again Netanyahu successfully put them in an unbearable place where they can’t possibly win.  Netanyahu will have succeeded once again to embarrass the President of the Free World, and the virtually only Superpower.  Israel loses here for embarrassing a US president, for having a Palestinian State with no negotiations on borders.  The Palestinian lose here for very strange two reasons: the first is that Abbas will now have to convince Hamas that Gaza is part of the new Palestinian State (who will govern, how, are valid questions here).  The second is even stranger: with Statehood comes responsibility.  With independence comes responsibility as well.  Abbas will be expected to make sure he’s in control of his People, and their weapons.  He will also be responsible to provide a viable economy.  A state cannot be dependent on donations for a long time.

And here’s my opinion.  A Palestinian State is better for Israel than an American veto.  Here’s why.  A Palestinian State will most likely cause the realization among some (certainly not all) Israelis, that there’s a new situation here that must be dealt with.  Some pragmatic people (Netanyahu, Liberman, other right wingers excluded) will recognize the strategic need to resolve the situation even at an expensive cost, which translates into giving up land, reconsidering borders (no refugee return into the newly defined borders of Israel, this is a suicide on the Israeli side and will never pass, right or left.  It’s time the Palestinians understand it and climb down that tree).  Peace with the Palestinians has (at least) a fair chance of calming down this war stricken region.

I hope the outcome today will be: application submitted, no American veto, understanding on the Israeli side that a Palestinian state is a good thing for Israel, and understanding on the Palestinian side that with Statehood and Independence comes significant responsibility: to their people, to their neighbors, to the world.  If I am correct here (most likely not), I will personally congratulate all parties tomorrow.  If I am wrong, well, I keep the right to remain optimistic.  Optimism is still free in most countries.

P.S. If you are a right wing Israeli, and want to tag me as extreme left, don’t bother.  I am not.  Never was, never will be.  I simply want to live in peace, and willing to compromise for it.