Egypt is a good example.  Syria and Libya are excellent examples as well.  Let’s have a look at Egypt and a few other countries in that neck of the woods (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos).

(*)         Source: http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/GNI_PPP_of_countries.htm

(**)       The original list placed the countries in reverse order, for the sake of consistency, I reversed it back.  The higher the number, the worse the situation

A short look reveals a very simple reality: the countries are relatively rich, the people are poor, sometime, dirt poor.  It’s rather comfortable for the governments in these countries to keep the situation as is.  The ruling parties usually earn their power not by election, but rather by force, and are kept is power using brute force, and money.  The ruling parties are either family or tribal associations.  The rest of the people are not treated particularly well (understatement), minorities, including women and children are treated similarly.  So after a few dozen years what do we have: a large amount of poor, frustrated people, who have absolutely no hope for a better life. Do not misinterpret this statement: there are poor people everywhere.  There are poor families in rural areas everywhere.  Even is the richest, powerful, most equal countries like the United States and Israel.  But there’s also hope for them.  They can, even if only by some miracle, elevate themselves and become comfortable, educated, well off.  There’s no hope in the countries mentioned above.  The concrete ceiling is quite low, and cannot be passed if one does not have the right family or tribal connections.

Now here’s an observation.  Given the corrupt government, the means by which it is chosen and the means by which it is actually governing, combined with the richness of the countries and the poverty of the people creates an unbearable pressure which have chosen to erupt in 2011.  Egypt, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Jordan  are only examples of countries in which there are significant natural resources, consumed by a small fraction of the population.  The frustration simmers overtime, and the natural safe haven for the poor and the frustrated, for the ones who have no chance of getting out of the misery is guess what: religion.  Fundamental Islam, in many of these countries if not all of them is very much associated with charity, with helping the poor.  In Gaza, when President George W. Bush insisted on election, the outcome was Hamas: an extreme fundamental Islamic organization who is very much associated with helping the poor with funds, education and food.  In Lebanon, Hezbollah.  In Egypt, The Muslim Brotherhood, and so on.  Unfortunately, while internally associated with charity internally, these very same organizations are widely recognized as terrorist organizations when it comes to the outside world.  Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Muslim Brotherhood (apparently the biggest winners in the recent Egyptian election), are all considered to be extreme fundamentalist Islamic organizations when it comes to American and European eyes.  The very same organizations are considered to be the saviors, the protector of the poor within their own countries.

This combination is lethal for the Western world.  It is rather unstoppable actually.  Corrupt governments are bound to be ousted as it is the natural and just thing to do.  The replacements, are the organizations which painstakingly won the hearts of the people over many years.  The big question remains: what will they do once in power?  Will they redistribute the wealth?  Or use it to accomplish their political agendas: destroy Israel is a common agenda for many of these organizations.  It does seem, that this agenda has been elevated from fantasy to a dream in recent years.  The election in Egypt may just be the bullet between the eyes of the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty which survived reasonably well for over thirty years.  With Iran getting nuclear (also upgraded from fantasy to near reality), Egypt being ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey by Erdogan, Libya by the Islamic Law of Sharia, Syria about to be turned, Yemen, Lebanon, and others well on their way, the Western World has to be watching very carefully over its shoulder.

But here’s the twist.  The Western world is way too concerned with the collapsing economies of its own to be able or wanting to take action.  Let’s take the following as examples: The British embassy in Tehran, and the Israeli embassy in Cairo.  Both stormed by mobs, with near loss of life of embassy staff members.  Let me state clearly: in neither countries this couldn’t have happened unless the army looked the other way.  These occurrences can be treated as water testing.  I would expect more.  The West is being tested.  And from where I’m sitting, it’s seems to be failing.

And here’s another twist.  Many Americans I know consider Israel to be the “Only Democracy in the Middle East”, and the “Only Ally America Has in the Middle East” or something along these lines.  Watching the recent laws passed by the Israeli Parliament, and some behaviors practiced by extreme religious communities, I strongly suggest to these Americans: think again.  With separation of men and women practiced in certain buses in Jerusalem, with laws against left wing organizations fund raising, women and minority rights, the widening gaps between rich and poor, child poverty and even hunger, it seems that Israel’s democracy is becoming an endangered species.  Peace with the Palestinian neighbors has been downgraded from dream to fantasy, extreme religious and right wing fundamentalists are determining the Israeli agenda.  Here’s some excerpts from the latest OECD report about Israel (and other countries of course).

Child poverty is another disturbing statistic out of the OECD report:

“Israel has the highest rate of child poverty among the 35 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, with more than a quarter of children living in poor households, a report issued by the Paris-based organization has revealed.”

According to the report, titled “Doing Better for Families,” 26.6 percent of Israeli children, a much higher rate than in Denmark, which has the best record at 3.7%. The OECD average is 12.7% (Link)

If Hillary Rodham Clinton is worried about the Israeli democracy (link), well, frankly speaking, so am I.

Having said all that, the deal must be done.  It should have been done a long time ago, but better late than never.  Yes, there are risks in this horrible deal.  Two obvious ones are the following.  About one thousand people, many of which actually took part in murder whether directly or indirectly, are going to walk the streets, possibly become heroes in the eyes of the people whom they represent.  It may trigger a feeling of victory in certain eyes.  Forget it guys, you have won nothing.  It may trigger the feeling that Israel is weak.  Forget it guys, Israel isn’t week.  It ain’t smart, but it ain’t weak wither.  It may trigger some activity whose goal is to capture another soldier or civilian and trade.  True, it can, and probably will.  The head of the Israeli Security Services, the Chief of Staff, and many others stated clearly and unequivocally that this deal should not be done for these reasons.  While I share the concern, I have an answer.  Security Services all around the world must face new situation every minute of the day.  They can always voice their opinions – I think it should be done in a very quiet, discreet way – but what they should really do is prepare to deal with the new situation.  The decision is a political, diplomatic, government decision.  The civil servants must accept, prepare, and deliver a solution, not contest the problem.

To the Shalit family, I don’t want to congratulate prematurely, as in our region of the world things are not done until they’re done.  Yet, I want to tell you that all at our home support you, and wish you all the best.  May you know no more anxiety, anguish, sorry and worry.  Coming to think about it, I wish it to all of us.  ברוך פודה שבויים